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<p class=3DMsoNormal align=3Dcenter style=3D'text-align:center;line-height:=
200%'><u><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>The Spanish <st1:place w:st=3D"=
on">Caribbean</st1:place>
and its Influence in a Transition in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:p=
lace
 w:st=3D"on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal align=3Dcenter style=3D'text-align:center'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>Jorge Luis Romeu<a style=3D'mso-footnote-id:ftn1'
href=3D"#_ftn1" name=3D"_ftnref1" title=3D""><span class=3DMsoFootnoteRefer=
ence><u><span
style=3D'mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=3DMsoFootnoteReference><u><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family=
:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-farea=
st-language:
EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[1]</span></u></span><![endif]></span></u></=
span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal align=3Dcenter style=3D'text-align:center'><st1:place =
w:st=3D"on"><st1:City
 w:st=3D"on"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>Syracuse University</span></s=
t1:City><span
 style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>, <st1:State w:st=3D"on">NY</st1:State></span><=
/st1:place><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal align=3Dcenter style=3D'text-align:center'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><a href=3D"mailto:jromeu@ecs.syr.edu">jromeu@ecs=
.syr.edu</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal align=3Dcenter style=3D'text-align:center'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal align=3Dcenter style=3D'text-align:center'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>ASCE XV Annual Conference<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal align=3Dcenter style=3D'text-align:center'><st1:place =
w:st=3D"on"><st1:City
 w:st=3D"on"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>Miami</span></st1:City><span
 style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'> <st1:State w:st=3D"on">FL</st1:State></span></=
st1:place><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>, August of 2005<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></sp=
an></p>

<h1 style=3D'line-height:200%'><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:=
200%'>Introduction<o:p></o:p></span></h1>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>When Fidel Castro came to power=
 in
1959, Cubans on both sides of the political differend committed a costly st=
rategic
error. We allowed our internal struggle to become a football in the Cold War
game. Castro sided with the <st1:place w:st=3D"on">Soviet Union</st1:place>=
, at a
time when a nuclear war could destroy everything. The Cuban opposition sided
with the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">United Stat=
es</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
who sought to prevent the establishment of a Soviet foothold, 90 miles from=
 its
shores. We Cubans have never learned that old American saying: &#8220;polit=
ics
ends at the water&#8217;s edge&#8221;. Nor have we learned from the Mexican
lesson of Maximilian and the French intervention of the 1860&#8217;s, when =
the
conservatives, after loosing the civil war against Juarez and the Liberals,=
 requested
their help.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>In the case of Cuba, the United
States launched its economic embargo, which Castro adroitly used, to bring
together the country around him to face of a foreign enemy, as well as to p=
lay
little David, both very old strategies for such situation. And the Cuban op=
position
distanced itself from <st1:place w:st=3D"on">Latin America</st1:place> and =
the Spanish
Caribbean, because the region supported Fidel Castro and his government, fo=
r practical
political, economic, strategic and demagogic reasons. This was yet another =
costly
miscalculation, one that alienated the Cuban opposition from its natural La=
tin American
milieu. We failed to understand the real causes behind their behavior, and =
to
finesse its response adequately. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>For, the Spanish Caribbean coun=
tries
did take advantage of the Cuban situation in at least three ways. First, we=
 all
produce similar goods: sugar cane, tobacco, coffee, fruits and seafood. Our
sister nations obtained the Cuban quotas in the <st1:country-region w:st=3D=
"on"><st1:place
 w:st=3D"on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> markets, and also inherite=
d the
American tourism and economic investment. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>But historically, this was no
different from <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cuba<=
/st1:place></st1:country-region>&#8217;s
policy during the 1790s, under Governor Luis de Las Casas and his Economic
Adviser, don Francisco de Arango y Parreno. For, after the Africans revolte=
d in
Haiti destroying that island&#8217;s slave-based economy, Cuba seized the
opportunity to launch its sugar and coffee industries that, until then, had=
 languished
due to the intense competition of this French colony. Sleazy as this policy=
 may
be, such is the usual procedure in international relations.<o:p></o:p></spa=
n></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Secondly, as the political atte=
ntion
of the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">United States=
</st1:place></st1:country-region>
focused on Castro&#8217;s <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=
=3D"on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
it eased on the other Spanish Caribbean countries, giving them greater lati=
tude.
Their governments thence, had an added interest in maintaining Castro&#8217=
;s
regime, from which they scored excellent points both, economically as well =
as
politically. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Finally, several of our sister
republics were far from democratic, and could not provide a better life for
their citizens. Hence, they found it convenient to nominally support the
government in <st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Havana</st1:plac=
e></st1:City>,
while maintaining the privileges of their upper classes at home. For, such
political posturing is appealing to their poverty-stricken masses and diver=
ts
the attention away from their own lack of civil and political liberties, go=
ods
and government services. Some people refer to such procedures as demagoguer=
y. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>We can summarize the above disc=
ussion
into three main reasons that have helped sustain the present Cuban regime f=
or
the past 46 years. They are (1) President Castro&#8217;s political shrewdne=
ss
and ability to survive, (2) the Cold War and the <st1:country-region w:st=
=3D"on"><st1:place
 w:st=3D"on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> policy toward <st1:country=
-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region>, a=
nd (3)
the economic and political interests of the Ibero American and other foreig=
n countries,
vis-&agrave;-vis the Cuban regime. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>However, in the past few years =
several
significant events have occurred, directly affecting the above three circum=
stances
and opening a unique window of opportunity that facilitates a Transition to=
 a
pluralistic system and a normalization of the Cuban situation.<o:p></o:p></=
span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>First, President Castro is clos=
e to
80 years now, nearing the end of his natural life. His brother Raul, the
official heir to <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cub=
a</st1:place></st1:country-region>&#8217;s
Presidency, has a slim chance of becoming his successor. For, there have be=
en
already two entire generations of capable leaders lost to the absolute cont=
rol
of the Castro clique. Finally, the deteriorated socioeconomic and political
conditions inside the island encourage the possibility for negotiations bet=
ween
Castro&#8217;s younger successors, and <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1=
:place
 w:st=3D"on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region>&#8217;s internal and ext=
ernal
opposition. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Second, the end of the Cold War=
 more
than a decade ago, has left the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place =
w:st=3D"on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region>
as the only world superpower, thus diminishing the danger of a nuclear
confrontation. This allows the possibility of implementing a change in the
45-year-old American policy toward <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:pla=
ce
 w:st=3D"on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region>, without the <st1:countr=
y-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> loos=
ing face
or endangering its security. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Finally, Ibero <st1:country-reg=
ion
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">America</st1:place></st1:country-region>=
 has
advanced politically and economically, in the last half century, and its
interests are now broader. Today, they can prosper without having to prey on
the Cuban economy. And they need a stable and pluralistic <st1:country-regi=
on
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region> if=
 they
really want to foster their own economic development and political pluralism
that will bring even more support from the European Union, the <st1:country=
-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> and =
other <st1:place
w:st=3D"on">First World</st1:place> governments.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>The implementation of a peaceful
transition, in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cuba<=
/st1:place></st1:country-region>
or anywhere else however, requires a negotiation process between the opposi=
tion
and those at the helm. But such negotiations need the presence of a mutually
acceptable arbiter or facilitator, to help negotiate the differences and to=
 guarantee
the terms of the agreements. Such arbiter could naturally come from Ibero <=
st1:country-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">America</st1:place></st1:country-region>=
 and the
Spanish Caribbean, as occurred for example, during the bloody civil wars in=
 <st1:place
w:st=3D"on">Central America</st1:place> in the 1980s.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>But, at the present time, such =
facilitators
or arbiters are not likely to materialize, due to the lack of trust and eve=
n dislike,
between the Spanish Caribbean countries and the Cuban opposition. For, in
addition to the elements discussed above, there are other historical and mo=
re
subjective reasons.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>We Cubans have considered ourse=
lves whiter,
richer and more sophisticated, than most other Ibero American countries, du=
e to
our longer colonial status under <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place
 w:st=3D"on">Spain</st1:place></st1:country-region> first, and to the proxi=
mity
and special status with the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=
=3D"on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
later. This has made us feel superior, many times putting down our own and =
looking
north-ward, instead, like the statue of Diana Cazadora situated in Paseo de=
 la
Reforma, in <st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Mexico City</st1:p=
lace></st1:City>.
This attitude has not won many friends in Ibero <st1:country-region w:st=3D=
"on"><st1:place
 w:st=3D"on">America</st1:place></st1:country-region>, and adds a dimension=
 of resentment
to the above-mentioned political and economic reasons for them to remain al=
oof.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>It is, however, imperative to s=
how
how much all the above reasons are pass&eacute; and wrong, and conduce no
where. It is imperative that Cubans recognize how we are a Spanish Caribbean
nation and hence, of Ibero <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=
=3D"on">America</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
And it is imperative to show the Spanish Caribbean nations how we will all
gain, and not loose, if Cuba resolves its internal problems peacefully, thr=
ough
a process of negotiations facilitated by our own, and not by others, further
away. This is what we try to do here.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Therefore, these are the two ob=
jectives
of our paper: to show how the Spanish Caribbean is Cuba&#8217;s political
habitat, to which it belongs geographically and culturally, and to show how
such habitat can play a major role in Cuba&#8217;s transition to pluralism,
after President Castro&#8217;s natural and inevitable disappearance, provid=
ing the
badly needed facilitators and increasing its possibilities of successful oc=
currence,
in the minimum time and with the minimum cost.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>In the rest of this paper we di=
scuss
the origins, development and fragmentation into isolated countries, of the
peoples and nations integrating the Spanish Caribbean. Then, we discuss some
implications of the participation of such nations in facilitating the proce=
ss
of a peaceful Transition to an open society in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"=
on"><st1:place
 w:st=3D"on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:200%'><span style=3D'font-size:12=
.0pt;
line-height:200%'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<h1 style=3D'line-height:200%'><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:=
200%'>Common
Historical Roots <o:p></o:p></span></h1>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>We spouse the hypothesis that t=
he Spanish
Caribbean is one, homogeneous, with specific characteristics in each country
but with a common identity. One could then legitimately ask why it is that =
today,
such <st1:place w:st=3D"on">Caribbean</st1:place> is not united, but fragme=
nted
into a host of isolated, small, and poor countries. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>To provide some answers to this=
 challenging
question we must first define what we understand by the Spanish Caribbean: =
the
socioeconomic and cultural collection of islands and coastal areas of the
Caribbean Basin proper, as well as selected coastal areas of the Gulf of
Mexico, which were colonized and held by Spain throughout the XVI to the XV=
III
Centuries and who struggled through independence wars and nation building in
the XIX and XX Centuries. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Consequently, we do not include=
 in the
Spanish Caribbean the islands colonized by the French, English or other
Europeans, nor the parts of the Caribbean coast of Central America populate=
d by
the Black Caribs or Garifuna. We mean <st1:place w:st=3D"on"><st1:City w:st=
=3D"on">Puerto
  Rico</st1:City>, <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on">Dominican Republic</st1:=
country-region></st1:place>,
<st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cuba</st1:place></st=
1:country-region>,
plus the <st1:place w:st=3D"on">Caribbean</st1:place> coasts of <st1:countr=
y-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Venezuela</st1:place></st1:country-regio=
n>, <st1:country-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Colombia</st1:place></st1:country-region=
> and <st1:country-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Panama</st1:place></st1:country-region>,=
 the
Gulf coast of the Mexican states of <st1:place w:st=3D"on"><st1:City w:st=
=3D"on">Veracruz</st1:City>,
 <st1:State w:st=3D"on">Yucatan</st1:State></st1:place> and <st1:State w:st=
=3D"on"><st1:place
 w:st=3D"on">Campeche</st1:place></st1:State>, and to a lesser extent, sele=
cted
areas of the <st1:place w:st=3D"on">Caribbean</st1:place> side of <st1:coun=
try-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Honduras</st1:place></st1:country-region=
> (e.g. <st1:City
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">San Pedro Sula</st1:place></st1:City>) a=
nd <st1:country-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Costa Rica</st1:place></st1:country-regi=
on>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Their common characteristics are
visible and evident, even to the weekend tourist. They include speaking the
same language, practicing the same religion, playing the same music, dancin=
g to
the same rhythms, having similar ethnic mix, eating the same food and fruit=
s,
and having a common colonial history, including suffering the same Spanish
neglect during the XVI to the XVIII centuries. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>The proof is that we name our r=
hythms
(e.g. son, merengue, cumbia), our roots (e.g. yautia, yuca), our fruits (e.=
g. lechosa,
papaya, platano, banano), our fish (e.g. pargo, guachinango, chillo), etc. =
with
different names, when they are essentially the same. Finally, there may wel=
l be
less African blood in the mainland, and more in the islands of the Spanish
Caribbean. But we all are all, at least culturally, a mixture of white and
black with American Indian. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Our main colonial cities and to=
wns (<st1:City
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">San Juan</st1:place></st1:City>, <st1:Ci=
ty
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Santo Domingo</st1:place></st1:City>, La=
 Habana,
<st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Santiago</st1:place></st1:City=
>, Porto
Bello, <st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Santa Marta</st1:place>=
</st1:City>,
<st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cartagena</st1:place></st1:Cit=
y>, <st1:City
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Barranquilla</st1:place></st1:City>, <st=
1:place
w:st=3D"on"><st1:City w:st=3D"on">Maracaibo</st1:City>, <st1:State w:st=3D"=
on">Veracruz</st1:State></st1:place>,
<st1:State w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Campeche</st1:place></st1:Sta=
te>, <st1:City
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Merida</st1:place></st1:City>, etc.) were
founded in the same century and look very much alike. Their traditional old
sections are so similar, that often movies about one country are made in
another. We wear the same guayaberas, use similar straw hats, smoke large
cigars and play equally romantic and slow boleros, in our Spanish guitars. =
But
most important, we share this huge mass of water, with its beautiful beache=
s,
that some times unites us and other times, separates us.<o:p></o:p></span><=
/p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Spanish colonialism formed our =
souls,
giving us its laws, political traditions, good and bad customs, and inventi=
ng
the Creole and the mestizo. Similar military authorities, absentee landowne=
rs
and corrupt and incompetent administrators, governed us, and similarly
independent-minded Creoles practiced extensive and illicit commerce with the
buccaneers. These American-born Spaniards now lived side by side with Afric=
ans,
both slaves and free, frequently mixing with them, and thus fusioning into =
this
semi-magic combination of European, Amerindian and African that is our Span=
ish
Caribbean ethnicity and culture. If you doubt it, go back and re-read Cien =
Anos
de Soledad.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Historical examples of such com=
mon
policies and customs also abound. In <st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=
=3D"on">Santo
  Domingo</st1:place></st1:City>, the Spanish governor burned cities and
haciendas in the eastern part of the island (<st1:country-region w:st=3D"on=
"><st1:place
 w:st=3D"on">Haiti</st1:place></st1:country-region>) in the XVII century, t=
o eradicate
the illicit commerce of its inhabitants, forcing them to relocate to the ea=
stern
side (now, <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Dominican
  Republic</st1:place></st1:country-region>). This facilitated the take-ove=
r of
the western part of <st1:place w:st=3D"on">Hispaniola</st1:place> by the Fr=
ench.
In <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cuba</st1:place><=
/st1:country-region>,
the Spanish governors could never deter similar commerce in the eastern par=
t of
the island, where cities like Bayamo amassed its great wealth, based on con=
traband.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>The peoples of the Spanish Cari=
bbean became
homogeneous because they were formed in a slow process that took 300 years.=
 The
discovery of gold and silver in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place =
w:st=3D"on">Mexico</st1:place></st1:country-region>
and <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Peru</st1:place>=
</st1:country-region>
during the mid 1500s, where the conquistadors could become rich very quickl=
y, helped
empty the Spanish Caribbean. Most Spaniards who initially had settled in the
islands left, taking their slaves, their Amerindian servants and even their
animals. Those few who stayed, languished and mixed with the remaining slav=
es
and Indians, for the next three centuries. As a result, <st1:place w:st=3D"=
on"><st1:City
 w:st=3D"on">Santo Domingo</st1:City>, <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on">Cuba=
</st1:country-region></st1:place>,
<st1:place w:st=3D"on">Puerto Rico</st1:place> and the other parts of the r=
egion were,
at the end of the XVIII Century, approximately 1/3 white (Spaniards and Cre=
oles),
1/3 mixed race and free, and 1/3 black or Amerindian, mostly slaves and
indentured servants. However, the majority of these slaves had been born in=
 the
Spanish Caribbean, spoke Spanish as their first language and had acquired m=
any
customs of the other two ethnic groups.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>By contrast, in the French and
English colonies, Europeans were very few (less than 10%) and most of them,
were transient employees of commercial plantations that stayed for only a f=
ixed
period of time. The slaves (the remaining 90%) were so badly mistreated, th=
at thousands
had to be imported every year, to replace the dying. As a result, the major=
ity
of the population was integrated by slaves recently brought from <st1:place
w:st=3D"on">Africa</st1:place>, with no common language and no bonds, eithe=
r with
the people or with the land itself. Finally, there were few mixed-race or f=
ree
blacks, that could serve as an ethnic or social buffer between races, or
between the socioeconomic classes. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>This situation worsened in the =
XIX
Century, when Chinese and East Indian indentured servants (read, slaves) we=
re
brought in large quantities to work in the fields, once African slavery was
formally abolished. As a consequence, islands like <st1:place w:st=3D"on">T=
rinidad</st1:place>,
<st1:place w:st=3D"on">Tobago</st1:place> and <st1:place w:st=3D"on">Curaca=
o</st1:place>,
and nations like <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Sur=
iname</st1:place></st1:country-region>
and <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Guyana</st1:plac=
e></st1:country-region>,
live under great social and racial tensions from the different racial, reli=
gious
and linguistic groups that populate them and who have never integrated. <o:=
p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>The explosive economic, social =
and
ethnic composition in the French and English colonies led, for example, to =
the bloody
and violent slave rebellion of 1794 in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1=
:place
 w:st=3D"on">Haiti</st1:place></st1:country-region>, and the subsequent mas=
sacre
of the white population. The proof that in the Spanish Caribbean social
conditions were different is that, after the 1822 Haitian invasion and subs=
equent
occupation of <st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Santo Domingo</s=
t1:place></st1:City>
(which lasted for 22 years) no massacres of whites ever occurred. Slavery w=
as indeed
abolished by Haitian President Boyer, and a land reform among the former sl=
aves,
at the expense of the property of the church and the state, was implemented=
. But
white Hateros and merchants kept their properties and wealth. And when in 1=
844,
the war for independence started, white, black and mixed race Dominicans
equally fought to expel the Haitian invader. <span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp;</span>For, it was not the color of the sk=
in,
but the language, religion, culture and customs what defined the inhabitant=
s of
Santo Domingo &#8211;as well as what defines the people from the Spanish Ca=
ribbean.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Another salient characteristic =
of the
region, and one which greatly facilitated its homogeneity, was the ease of
communication. Hundreds of sailboats crisscrossed the <st1:place w:st=3D"on=
">Caribbean</st1:place>
during the XV to XIX Centuries, carrying goods and products, people, news, =
etc.
Its inhabitants constantly moved from one place to another. Examples of
well-known military, political and cultural leaders, that moved around in t=
hese
areas during the XIX Century include Bolivar (in Haiti), Duarte (in Puerto
Rico), Maceo and Maximo Gomez (in Honduras, Costa Rica), Marti (in Mexico a=
nd
Venezuela), Henriquez Urenas (in Cuba) and Hostos (in the Dominican Republi=
c). <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp;</span>During the XX Century Romulo Betanc=
ourt
and Juan Bosch lived in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"=
on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
A. Sanchez Arango, in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on=
">Venezuela</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
and Castro, in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Mexic=
o</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
World-renown artists Rafael Hernandez, Agustin Lara, Armando Manzanero and
Celia Cruz lived and worked everywhere in the region. This author&#8217;s o=
wn family
came from <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Spain</st1=
:place></st1:country-region>
to <st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Santo Domingo</st1:place></=
st1:City>
during the XVIII Century, where our first American ancestor was born. In the
following 250 years, the family moved to <st1:place w:st=3D"on">Puerto Rico=
</st1:place>
and finally to <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cuba<=
/st1:place></st1:country-region>,
leaving many collateral family members all over the region, in their wake. =
<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Such movements of peoples and g=
oods were
possible because, for over 300 years, these areas were part of <st1:country=
-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Spain</st1:place></st1:country-region>, =
and all
its inhabitants held a common nationality. There was no currency to exchang=
e,
no new language to learn, no passports or visas to apply for, no work permi=
ts
to request, all of which facilitated these common and frequent exchanges. E=
ven
in the coastal areas of the mainland colonies, such as <st1:country-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Colombia</st1:place></st1:country-region=
> or <st1:country-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Mexico</st1:place></st1:country-region>,=
 with richer
and stronger governments, people still preferred maritime travel along the =
<st1:place
w:st=3D"on">Caribbean</st1:place>, to avoid the perils and difficulties of =
the
slower and less comfortable land travel. For this reason the Spanish Caribb=
ean
people remained closer to each other, than to their own political and
administrative colonial kindred. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>For example, peoples from <st1:=
place
w:st=3D"on"><st1:City w:st=3D"on">Veracruz</st1:City>, <st1:State w:st=3D"o=
n">Campeche</st1:State></st1:place>
and <st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Merida</st1:place></st1:Ci=
ty>, traditionally
preferred to travel to <st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Havana<=
/st1:place></st1:City>
by schooners (goletas) for health, educational or business reasons, than to=
 <st1:City
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Mexico City</st1:place></st1:City>, by l=
and. And
in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Venezuela</st1:pl=
ace></st1:country-region>,
which up to the XVIII Century was administratively dependent from <st1:City
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Santo Domingo</st1:place></st1:City>, pe=
ople
traveled from <st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Caracas</st1:pla=
ce></st1:City>
to Ciudad Primada (<st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Santo Domin=
go</st1:place></st1:City>),
as well as from <st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cartagena</st1=
:place></st1:City>
and <st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Barranquilla</st1:place></=
st1:City>,
via La Guaira. This situation persisted even after the region&#8217;s indep=
endence,
and well into the XX Century when finally good roads and railroads were bui=
lt
and the airplane appeared. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:200%'><span style=3D'font-size:12=
.0pt;
line-height:200%'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<h1 style=3D'line-height:200%'><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:=
200%'>The
Winds of Change <o:p></o:p></span></h1>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Such was the situation up to the
start of the Latin American independence movement, in the early XIX Century,
when most Spanish colonies became separate nations. Then, the first legal a=
nd
economic impediments to free interaction within the Spanish Caribbean,
appeared. Local caudillos and dictators, such as Paez in Venezuela, and San=
ta
Anna in Mexico, and those who followed them during the XIX and XX Century, =
as
well as the Spanish colonial authorities in Cuba and Puerto Rico, were not
interested in having their subjects move freely, escaping their control and
exploitation. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>In spite of this, the <st1:place
w:st=3D"on">Caribbean</st1:place> still provided the fastest, most economic=
al and
technically feasible means of transportation, making any policy of isolatio=
nism
very difficult to enforce. Thus, for economic reasons the Spanish Caribbean
remained a homogeneous entity, even when it started showing the first signs=
 of
differentiation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>For, the region started separat=
ing
ideologically. For example, <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=
=3D"on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region>
and <st1:place w:st=3D"on">Puerto Rico</st1:place> remained Spanish colonie=
s, and
<st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Santo Domingo</st1:place></st1=
:City>
became, first a Haitian and later a Spanish domain. It was not until the se=
cond
half of the XIX Century that the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place
 w:st=3D"on">Dominican Republic</st1:place></st1:country-region> obtained i=
ts total
independence, only to become a poor, weak and unstable republic, like many =
of
the other Spanish Caribbean countries.<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbs=
p;
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Then, a new factor appeared in =
the
region. Since the 1820&#8217;s, the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:pl=
ace
 w:st=3D"on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-region>, an emerging re=
gional
power, had become increasingly noticeable in the <st1:place w:st=3D"on">Car=
ibbean</st1:place>,
its southern and natural border. With its growing military, economic and
industrial power, and its stable republican system that included the possib=
ility
of maintaining slavery, the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=
=3D"on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region>
became a very attractive option for the landed classes and the aristocrats =
of
the Spanish Caribbean. Hence, in many of these countries, the prospect of
Annexation to the American Union was not only strongly considered, but acti=
vely
pursued.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>In <st1:country-region w:st=3D"=
on"><st1:place
 w:st=3D"on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region>, for example, the Annexa=
tion
movement had a strong following between 1810 and 1865 among large plantation
owners such as Madan and Aldama. The Narciso Lopez expedition that landed i=
n <st1:City
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cardenas</st1:place></st1:City> in 1853
displaying our Cuban flag for the first time was part of the annexation
movement. Only after Jose A. Saco, political leader and scholar, openly opp=
osed
such ideology and proposed the autonomy option as one more appropriate for =
<st1:country-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region>, d=
id the annexation
idea begin to dwindle.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>In <st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:p=
lace
 w:st=3D"on">Santo Domingo</st1:place></st1:City>, Presidents Santana and B=
aez
were also annexionists. Pedro Santana re-established the Spanish suzerainty=
 in
the island during 1860-64, while Buenaventura Baez sought, first the French=
 and
later the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">US</st1:pl=
ace></st1:country-region>
annexation, without much success. During the Mexican-American war of 1846-4=
8, and
later during the War of the Castes (1848-1852), <st1:State w:st=3D"on"><st1=
:place
 w:st=3D"on">Yucatan</st1:place></st1:State> (which at the time included
today&#8217;s states of <st1:place w:st=3D"on"><st1:City w:st=3D"on">Merida=
</st1:City>,
 <st1:State w:st=3D"on">Yucatan</st1:State></st1:place> and Quintana Roo) t=
oyed
with the though of incorporation to the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st=
1:place
 w:st=3D"on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-region>. <o:p></o:p></s=
pan></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>When the American Civil War put=
 an
end to slavery, Spanish Caribbean aristocrat interest in joining the <st1:c=
ountry-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> wane=
d.
However, a sentiment of inferiority persisted among some, who longed for
political and economic stability at all costs and believed that our nations
were unable to govern themselves. Such individuals entertained the idea of a
limited national sovereignty, under foreign tutelage, fueling the frequent =
interventions
that we have suffered in the last two centuries. Examples are too numerous =
to
name.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:200%'><span style=3D'font-size:12=
.0pt;
line-height:200%'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:200%'><u><span style=3D'font-size=
:12.0pt;
line-height:200%'>Cuban <st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Indepe=
ndence</st1:place></st1:City>
and the XX Century <o:p></o:p></span></u></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><st1:count=
ry-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-hei=
ght:200%'>Cuba</span></st1:place></st1:country-region><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'> fought several wars for its
independence, starting in 1868. These armed struggles did not succeed for
internal political and economic differences in the island. In the eastern p=
art,
conditions were similar to those previously described for other regions of =
the
Spanish Caribbean. The western part, with its huge sugar plantations and co=
nstant
importation of slaves, had become a small-scale version of the model that t=
he
French had developed in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"=
on">Haiti</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
And Cubans still remembered what had happened there in 1794. <o:p></o:p></s=
pan></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>However, the first independence=
 war (1868-78),
even when lost, produced large effects. Slavery was officially abolished, a=
nd a
free press, a pro-autonomy political party, and very defective and unfair, =
but regular
elections were finally allowed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Cuban independence was finally
obtained in 1898, but only after the plantation system in the Western provi=
nces
had been destroyed by the war, and a coalition known as Partido Revoluciona=
rio
Cubano, was forged by Jose Marti. The war was won with the military aid of =
the <st1:country-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-r=
egion>,
which acquired <st1:place w:st=3D"on">Puerto Rico</st1:place> and the <st1:=
country-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Philippines</st1:place></st1:country-reg=
ion>
from <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Spain</st1:plac=
e></st1:country-region>.
As a result of this war, the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:s=
t=3D"on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region>
emerged as a world power, thus increasing yet further its economic and
political influence in the Spanish Caribbean. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>The rest of the <st1:place w:st=
=3D"on">Caribbean</st1:place>
territories (e.g. <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Ja=
maica</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
the <st1:place w:st=3D"on">Lesser Antilles</st1:place>, <st1:place w:st=3D"=
on">Curacao</st1:place>)
remained in the hands of powerful European nations, thus minimizing the <st=
1:country-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> infl=
uence.
But the small, poor and disorganized Spanish Caribbean republics became an
object of the American foreign policy in the region. American military
intervention and political manipulation of leaders and governments were
frequent, generating a sentiment of ill-will against the <st1:country-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-r=
egion>.
Such sentiment was later exploited by unscrupulous political leaders, contr=
ibuting
to increase social and political instability in our countries, and providin=
g support
for several XX Century nationalist and anti-American movements.<o:p></o:p><=
/span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Summarizing, the Spanish Caribb=
ean,
which under <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Spain</s=
t1:place></st1:country-region>
and until the early XIX Century was united and homogeneous, slowly began
separating into several weak and disorganized nations. Frequent government
incompetence and corruption increased their poverty as well as their politi=
cal
instability, bringing about dictatorial regimes. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>We can establish a parallel bet=
ween
the current state of the Spanish Caribbean, and that of the Roman provinces=
 in
the <st1:place w:st=3D"on">Mediterranean</st1:place>, after the fall of <st=
1:City
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Rome</st1:place></st1:City> in 425. Thes=
e provinces
were invaded by barbarians, who established weak and unstable kingdoms that
brought 1000 years of backwardness and chaos, known in European history as =
the
Dark or Middle Ages. After centuries of struggle, <st1:country-region w:st=
=3D"on"><st1:place
 w:st=3D"on">Spain</st1:place></st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:=
st=3D"on"><st1:place
 w:st=3D"on">France</st1:place></st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Italy</st1:place></st1:country-region> j=
oined
several other nations to integrate the European Union, through which these
Mediterranean countries have again achieved world influence and clout.<o:p>=
</o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:200%'><span style=3D'font-size:12=
.0pt;
line-height:200%'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p>=
</span></p>

<h1 style=3D'line-height:200%'><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:=
200%'>The
Spanish <st1:place w:st=3D"on">Caribbean</st1:place> in a Possible Transiti=
on<o:p></o:p></span></h1>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>This brings us to our main topi=
c: how
can the Spanish Caribbean and Ibero <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:pl=
ace
 w:st=3D"on">America</st1:place></st1:country-region> help develop a peacef=
ul
Transition in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cuba</=
st1:place></st1:country-region>?
For, there are two parties to this negotiation: the government in <st1:City
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Havana</st1:place></st1:City>, and the o=
pposition
(internal and abroad) and we need to pose some hard questions. What can bot=
h of
these parties offer each other? How can they guarantee their promises? Who =
can facilitate
and mediate these conversations? <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><st1:count=
ry-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-hei=
ght:200%'>Cuba</span></st1:place></st1:country-region><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'> is economically and politicall=
y exhausted.
The opposition can offer the government, in exchange for a transition to
political and economic pluralism, much needed economic aid, technical know-=
how,
their international business connections and internal stability. Economic a=
id
would rapidly increase the wealth of the nation, as well as the socioeconom=
ic
level of the individuals, thus bringing internal peace.<o:p></o:p></span></=
p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>To guarantee these promises, as=
 well
as the safety and integrity of the government officials, the negotiations n=
eed
of arbiters other than the Cuban government, the internal and external
opposition, or the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">U=
nited
  States</st1:place></st1:country-region>. For, as interested parties, neit=
her
the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">US</st1:place></=
st1:country-region>
nor the Cuban opposition will be trusted by the Cuban officials, or vice-ve=
rsa.
However, such trusted arbiters can come from Ibero <st1:country-region w:st=
=3D"on"><st1:place
 w:st=3D"on">America</st1:place></st1:country-region> and <st1:place w:st=
=3D"on">Western
 Europe</st1:place>, especially from the Spanish Caribbean nations, who hav=
e a
strong interest in the economic and political stability of the region to wh=
ich
we all belong.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Further more, all parts to this
negotiation are today in a better position to work toward a negotiated Tran=
sition.
The <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">US</st1:place></=
st1:country-region>
is the sole, remaining superpower and no longer needs to monitor a region s=
o strategically
situated near its border. Spanish Caribbean nations have raised their
educational and socioeconomic standards, and many of them even enjoy democr=
atic
forms of government. They no longer need to fear or neutralize <st1:country=
-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region>, to
survive. Conditions leading to the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:pla=
ce
 w:st=3D"on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> economic embargo have
disappeared, or changed considerably. Hence, an American change of policy i=
n <st1:country-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region>, a=
nd its
acceptance by Castro&#8217;s successors, can be now implemented without any
party &#8220;loosing face&#8221;.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>There is one historical fact,
however, that conspires against the development and implementation of negot=
iations
for a Transition. <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cu=
ba</st1:place></st1:country-region>
has traditionally been a country of &#8220;single minded&#8221; leaders, du=
bious
virtue that has only brought disaster to our nation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><st1:count=
ry-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-hei=
ght:200%'>Spain</span></st1:place></st1:country-region><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>, our &#8220;mother country&#82=
21;,
let us bleed to annihilation during the 30 years of wars that culminated wi=
th
our independence. </span><span lang=3DES style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-hei=
ght:
200%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Spain&#8217;s motto: &#8220;hasta el &uacute;lti=
mo
hombre y la &uacute;ltima peseta&#8221; was much more than just rhetorical
fanfarre. </span><st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on"><sp=
an
  style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Spain</span></st1:place></st1=
:country-region><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'> systematically ignored multiple
plans for peaceful transitions to autonomy developed during the XIX Century=
: from
Frs. Jose Agustin Caballero&#8217;s (1808) and Felix Varela&#8217;s (1821),=
 to
Jose A. Saco&#8217;s (1848), up to Maura&#8217;s and the Partido Liberal
Autonomista (1893). And when <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:s=
t=3D"on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region>&#8217;s
separation finally occurred, as the result of the Spanish-Cuban-American Wa=
r of
1898, it was <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Spain</=
st1:place></st1:country-region>
and not the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">US</st1:=
place></st1:country-region>
who prevented Cubans from participating in the <st1:City w:st=3D"on"><st1:p=
lace
 w:st=3D"on">Paris</st1:place></st1:City> negotiations: <st1:country-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Spain</st1:place></st1:country-region> p=
referred
to deliver <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cuba</st1=
:place></st1:country-region>
to the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">US</st1:place=
></st1:country-region>,
rather than to set us free.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>During the republic things were=
 no
better. Presidents Estrada Palma and Garcia Menocal called in (or threatene=
d to
do so) the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">US</st1:p=
lace></st1:country-region>
marines, before negotiating with their internal opposition. Presidents Mach=
ado
and Batista also refused mediation efforts of the American ambassador and d=
on
Cosme de la Torriente, preferring revolutionary chaos and further dictators=
hip
than holding a rationale dialog with the opposition.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>We hope that this time, just as=
 it
occurred in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Spain</s=
t1:place></st1:country-region>
after Franco&#8217;s death, Cubans on both sides of the differend will have=
 the
talent and patriotism to put the interests of the Nation before those of th=
eir
political groups. We hope Cubans will finally be willing to reach a negotia=
ted
solution of our internal problems.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>For, have no doubt, the model f=
or the
solution of the Cuban differend is not in <st1:place w:st=3D"on">Eastern Eu=
rope</st1:place>,
but in Ibero <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">America=
</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
Consider, for example, what occurred with other life-long Caudillos of the
past, who have died in office after long years of absolute rule: Dr. Rodrig=
uez
de Francia and Carlos A. Lopez in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place
 w:st=3D"on">Paraguay</st1:place></st1:country-region>, Juan Vicente Gomez =
in <st1:country-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Venezuela</st1:place></st1:country-regio=
n>, Dr.
Salazar and Marcelo Caetano in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w=
:st=3D"on">Portugal</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
Those are the models we have to study carefully, to devise a solution.<o:p>=
</o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>Summarizing, Castro&#8217;s nat=
ural
disappearance, and a change in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w=
:st=3D"on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region>
policy toward <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Cuba</=
st1:place></st1:country-region>
will provide the &#8220;face saving&#8221; conditions for Castro&#8217;s
successors to participate in such negotiations, as long as all participating
parties can feel safe about their fate after the Transition. This situation=
 is
not much different to what occurred in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1=
:place
 w:st=3D"on">Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w=
:st=3D"on"><st1:place
 w:st=3D"on">Argentina</st1:place></st1:country-region> and <st1:country-re=
gion
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Chile</st1:place></st1:country-region>, =
after
the military returned the governments to the civilians, during the 1980s.<o=
:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-indent:.5in;line-height:200%'><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%'>The current window of opportuni=
ty is
open, but will not remain so, indefinitely. And, if we do not take advantag=
e of
it, the window will close again, returning us into the quagmire in which we
have remained for the past half century.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<u><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:"Times New =
Roman";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-farea=
st-language:
EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><br clear=3Dall style=3D'page-break-before:a=
lways'>
</span></u>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:200%'><u><span style=3D'font-size=
:12.0pt;
line-height:200%'>Acknowledgements<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:200%'><span style=3D'font-size:12=
.0pt;
line-height:200%'><span style=3D'mso-tab-count:1'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>We
thank our paper Discussant Dr. Alfred Cuzan, of <st1:place w:st=3D"on"><st1=
:PlaceName
 w:st=3D"on">West</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceName w:st=3D"on">Florida</st1:P=
laceName>
 <st1:PlaceType w:st=3D"on">University</st1:PlaceType></st1:place>, for his
excellent and comprehensive critique of our initial draft and conference pr=
esentation,
which helped us improve our paper into this final product. <o:p></o:p></spa=
n></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:200%'><span style=3D'font-size:12=
.0pt;
line-height:200%'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:200%'><u><span style=3D'font-size=
:12.0pt;
line-height:200%'>About the Author:<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:200%'><span style=3D'font-size:12=
.0pt;
line-height:200%'><span style=3D'mso-tab-count:1'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Jorge
Luis Romeu is a Syracuse University Research Professor, and directs the Jua=
rez
Lincoln Marti (<a href=3D"http://web.cortland.edu/matresearch">http://web.c=
ortland.edu/matresearch</a>)
International Education Project. Romeu is a Fulbright Senior Speaker
Specialist, with three tours in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place =
w:st=3D"on">Mexico</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
and two in the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Domin=
ican
  Republic</st1:place></st1:country-region>, and has been a Fundayacucho
consultant in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Venezu=
ela</st1:place></st1:country-region>.<span
style=3D'mso-tab-count:1'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; =
</span><br
clear=3Dall style=3D'mso-special-character:line-break;page-break-before:alw=
ays'>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:200%'><u><span style=3D'font-size=
:12.0pt;
line-height:200%'>Selected Bibliography<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Arciniegas, G. <u>Biografia d=
el
Caribe</u>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Alvarez Diaz et al. <u>Cuba:
Geopolitica y Pensamiento Economico</u>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Bosch, J. <u>Historia Economi=
co
Social de la Republica Dominicana</u>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Balaguer, J. <u>Memorias de un
Cortesano de la Era de Trujillo</u>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Carpentier, A. <u>El Reino de
Este Mundo</u>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Ferrara, O. <u>Mis Relaciones=
 con
Maximo Gomez</u>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Franco Pichardo. <u>Historia =
de
la Republica Dominicana</u>.<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp; </span>=
<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Franco, Jose Luciano. <u>Anto=
nio
Maceo</u>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Garcia y Guerra (Eds.). <u>La
Habana-Veracruz: las dos orillas</u>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Garcia Marquez, G. <u>Cien An=
os
de Soledad</u>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Gallegos, R. <u>Dona Barbara<=
/u>.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Guerra, R. <u>Manual de Histo=
ria
de Cuba</u>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Gomez, M. <u>Diario de Campan=
a</u>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Krause, E. <u>Los Caudillos</=
u>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Marrero, L. <u>Geografia de C=
uba</u>.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Manach, J. <u>Indagacion al
Choteo</u>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Ortiz, Fernando.<span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp; </span><u>Contrapunteo Cubano del Azucar =
y el
Tabaco</u>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Reed, N. <u>La Guerra de las
Castas</u>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Romeu, R. <u>Hostos, Antillan=
ista
y Ensayista</u>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span style=3D'font-size:12=
.0pt;
line-height:150%'>Romeu, J. L. <u>Cuba and the Gulf Pact</u>.<o:p></o:p></s=
pan></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span style=3D'font-size:12=
.0pt;
line-height:150%'>Romeu, J. L. <u>Manach and Gomez Morin: a comparative stu=
dy</u>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Rivera, J. E. <u>La Voragine<=
/u>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Saco, J. A. <u>Papeles; Contr=
a la
Anexion</u>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Villaverde, C. <u>Cecilia Val=
des</u>.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:150%'><span lang=3DES style=3D'fo=
nt-size:
12.0pt;line-height:150%;mso-ansi-language:ES'>Yepez Castillo. </span><u><sp=
an
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:150%'>Historia de Venezuela</span></u=
><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;line-height:150%'>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

</div>

<div style=3D'mso-element:footnote-list'><![if !supportFootnotes]><br clear=
=3Dall>

<hr align=3Dleft size=3D1 width=3D"33%">

<![endif]>

<div style=3D'mso-element:footnote' id=3Dftn1>

<p class=3DMsoFootnoteText><a style=3D'mso-footnote-id:ftn1' href=3D"#_ftnr=
ef1"
name=3D"_ftn1" title=3D""><span class=3DMsoFootnoteReference><span style=3D=
'mso-special-character:
footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span class=3DMsoFootnoteReference><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-font-fa=
mily:
"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;
mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[1]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></a> Rese=
arch
Professor in the Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Dept., SU, and direct=
or
of the Juarez Lincoln Marti Int&#8217;l Ed. Project (<a
href=3D"http://web.cortland.edu/matresearch">http://web.cortland.edu/matres=
earch</a>).
Fulbright Senior Speaker Specialist, with three tours in <st1:country-region
w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Mexico</st1:place></st1:country-region>,=
 and two
in the <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=3D"on">Dominican Rep=
ublic</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
Fundayacucho consultant in <st1:country-region w:st=3D"on"><st1:place w:st=
=3D"on">Venezuela</st1:place></st1:country-region>.</p>

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